SHORT-TERM EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION METHODS BASED ON MONITORING OF HYDROGEODEFORMATION FIELD

1 FGUP «Hydrospetsgeologiya», Moscow, Russia

2 Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

* e-mail: lur@ifz.ru

Absract. One of the promising directions in the field of strong earthquakes forecasting is the constant analysis of the hydrogeodeformation (HGD) field. As a result of long-term monitoring of the HGD field, it was found that the underground hydrosphere contains extensive information about the changes in geodynamic stresses and the development of deformation processes in the earth's crust. The development of short-term earthquake prediction methods was preceded by long-term studies to improve the monitoring of the HGD field. The article shows examples of a successful prediction of the place, time and magnitude for a number of strong earthquakes, obtained on the basis of complex analysis of the variations of the HGD field. The proposals on the use of the developed methods for short-term prediction of strong seismic events in the near-real-time mode are formulated.

Keywords: earthquake prediction, hydrogeodeformation field, magnitude, epicenter, geophysical monitoring

About the authors

KULIKOV Gennady V. – Dr. Sci. (Geol. and Min.), professor, consultant, FSBI «Hydrospetsgeologiya». Russia, 123060, Moscow, Marshala Rybalko st., 4. E-mail: genndvas@yandex.ru

SPEKTOR Sergey V. – Cand. Sci. (Geol. and Min.), deputy general director, FBGU «Hydrospetsgeologiya»; directorб Center for GMNS and RR. Russia, 123060, Moscow, Marshala Rybalko st., 4. E-mail: info@specgeo.ru

ROGOZHIN Evgeny A. − Dr. Sci. (Geol. and Min.), professor, chief researcher, Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences. Russia, 123242, Moscow, Bolshaya Gruzinskaya st., 10-1. E-mail: eurog@ifz.ru

LUKASHOVA Raisa N. – science researcher, Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences. Russia, 123242, Moscow, Bolshaya Gruzinskaya st., 10-1. E-mail: lur@ifz.ru

SYSOLIN Alexandr I. – science researcher, Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Russia, 123242, Moscow, Bolshaya Gruzinskaya st., 10-1. E-mail: alsn@ifz.ru

Cite this article as: Kulikov G.V., Spector S.V., Rogozhin E.A., Lukashova R.N., Sysolin A.I. Short-term earthquake prediction methods based on monitoring of hydrogeodeformation field, Geofizicheskie Protsessy i Biosfera (Geophysical Processes and Biosphere), 2019, vol. 18, no. 4, pp. 146–157 (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.21455/gpb2019.4-12

English version: Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, 2019, vol. 55, iss. 11. ISSN: 0001-4338 (Print), 1555-628X (Online). https://link.springer.com/journal/volumesAndIssues/11485